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How 2014 European election results could be converted into Leave/Remain votes
This article was also published in UKGeneralElection2020
 
Now this takes a leap of faith, but then again we are told it could be a leap into the dark.

But like the past by election in Oldham, Just not enough voters for UKIP to win Oldham West Royton by election (we called it right a month before the election) it was interesting to see just how many potential voters their would be for a particular party and this instance for leave/remain campaign.

So instead of depending on opinion polls and people answering questions to folks. This is where people got off their backsides and voted.

Splits are notional so for instance the UKIP vote is split 95% Leave 5% Remain due to the nature of the party.

The Conservatives is split 80% remain 20% leave much like the cabinet has come out after David Camerons negotiations. Labour is split 85% remain 15% Leave, as they are not seen as euro sceptic as the Conservatives and also their vote would have already voted UKIP. So included in their numbers.

Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens & Sinn Fein are seen as strongly for the remain,

Where as DUP seen 90/10 leave as they have announced they will support the leave campaign

BNP & English Democrats strongly for the Leave.

An Independence from Europe is the only ones we have done as 100% leave.

only parties who received over 100,000 votes have been included in this exercise. this also is on a low turnout. so is purely notional.

Party Votes cast for them Notional Leave Notional Remain
UKIP 4,376,635 (95%) 4,157,803 (5%) 218,832
LABOUR 4,020,646 (15%) 603,092 (85%) 3,417,554
CONSERVATIVES 3,792,549 (20%) 758,510 (80%) 3,034,039
GREENS 1,255,573 (5%) 62,779 (95%) 1,192,794
LIB DEMS 1,087,633 (5%) 54,382 (95%) 1,033,251
SNP  389,503 (5%) 19,475 (95%) 370,028
AN INDY FROM EUROPE 235,124 (100%) 235,124 (0) 0
BNP 179,694 (99%) 177,897 (1%) 1,797
SINN FEIN 159,813 (1%) 1,598 (99%) 158,215
DUP  131,163 (95%) 124,605 (5%) 6,558
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 126,024 (99%) 124,764 (1%) 1,260
PLAID CYMRU 111,864 (5%) 5,593 (95%) 106,271
TOTALS   6,325,622 9,540,599
So the result?

Well according to these figure the remain camp has it 60.14% Remain to 39.86% Leave

The 2014 euro elections were a high point for UKIP and although this was a vote for sending MEP'S tothe European parliament in essence a chance for people to have a free vote on what they thought of Europe. So it can be classed that those who are in favour of Europe would vote for Euro positive parties and those against would vote for parties who wanted out of Europe.

Conclusion....

based on these numbers there is not enough potential leave voters.

What are your thoughts?
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