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I'm calling it: A Tory victory!

The Tories will win. Many of you might not agree, but I’m calling it. The polls are neck and neck, and a Tory coalition may be impossible right now. But I imagine the polls underestimate the Tory vote, especially in swing seats, and the Conservatives are on path to continue getting stronger.

 

The Tories were five percentage points behind not that long ago. Not that long before that, they were ten points behind. Right now, they are neck and neck with some polls actually giving them a lead. Over the next 40-odd days, Conservative support will grow and grow.

They are being helped by the SNP, it must be said. Despite Sturgeon reportedly admitting she’d rather see a Tory government (which is in no way surprising, as a long period of Conservative rule is the only way that the nationalists will have another shot at independence this generation) her party’s continual assurances that, no matter what Labour say about it, there definitely will be an agreement between Labour and the SNP after the election is a huge vote-loser for Labour. On top of the 40+ seats they could lose in Scotland, Labour is suffering in England as a party with no interests in England and who, in a way, stand against Westminster altogether tell the people that they will control a Labour government.

The Tories on the other hand seem to be having a particularly confusing time of it, but UKIP supporters are ‘coming home’, as Cameron put it, and they will make some gains from the Lib Dems. Labour’s line of attack on zero hour’s contracts has sounded tired in recent weeks, as the Conservatives have taken action on some exploitative contracts and demonstrated that ‘zero hours jobs’ do not make up the ‘majority’ of new jobs created. It can only get better for the Tories, and I wouldn’t say that a Tory majority government is out of the question. However, I imagine it is more likely to be a Tory-Lib Dem coalition again with relatively few seats needed for a majority while of course the Tories are confident that they can actually work with the key Lib Dems.

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