Ed Miliband will be wake up on 8th May as the party leader holding the most seats. Will he become PM? Who knows. But I’m willing to wager an unquantifiable amount that Labour will be given the first chance to form a governing coalition or even a minority government.
Why? Firstly, a pure practicality. The recent boundary changes favor Labour. Its distribution of support will enable the party to gain more seats than the Tories, even in winning a fewer number of votes. Ideologically, over the past 5 years, that overused epithet- the squeezed middle- has really felt the pinch. Prices have outstripped wages for the majority of Cameron’s tenure, and the average Joe just does not trust Osborne and Co. to turn this around. Cameron’s friends in high places (read Brooks, Clarkson and relative, Kim Kardashian) do not appeal. That squeaky clean image has long begun to grate.
On the flipside, although Ed struggles to make eating a bacon sandwich look elegant, he continues to make the right noises. He attacks the greedy, has assaulted the energy fraudsters, and has stood toe-to-toe with the people’s favorite- Rupert Murdoch. No one likes the bankers, and guess what? Neither does Ed. Who wants cheaper energy bills? Ed Miliband. On a more serious note, the election really boils down to a choice of values, and on this, I believe that the Labour party will have the edge.
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My prediction is that Labour will implement the ‘35% strategy’ with determined gusto and do just about enough to attain a slim majority. At least, this is what my heart says. My head? Miliband to lead a minority government that falls apart within a year, leading to a fractious and deeply unattractive political future.